"What if?" is one of the most powerful questions in the English language. It engages imagination and emotion, information and ego. Depending on the person asking and the situation, "What if?" could be the first step in persuasion to enterprise, or dissuasion from potential folly. And yet, the power of the question lies in the implied truth: no one knows the future, and a myriad of unseen outcomes lies beyond every single step. Even inaction is no shield against the onslaught of time; those who do not act, are acted upon. Deep in the dark of mysterious winter hides the heart of every man's reckoning: Do I dare? Shall I try? And then ... What if?
As Disney+ prepares to drop the second season of the Marvel series, "What if...?" on December 22, it's only the latest in a long series of multiverse-themed television shows and films, from Spiderman: No Way Home to The Shift. Yet our current cultural obssesion with limitless outcomes seems to have more to do with contemplation with action; we'll watch the characters on screen scramble to redeem themselves with stolen second chances or sacrifice their desires for the betterment of future others, but we're reluctant to make a move of our own. The reason? The situation of the season.
SITUATION
Every decision involves risk, simply because the future is uncertain and always involves factors beyond our control. But the stakes feel higher in the Fourth Turning, the recurring phase of saecular winter that heightens our sense of fear and helplessness while culture devolves into chaos. In The Fourth Turning is Here, successor to The Fourth Turning and Generations, demographer Neil Howe explains that the 2010s mirror the 1930s in a variety of aspects, including the perception of risk:
"'Community' became a favorite word among the twenty-somethings of the 1930s, as it became again among the twenty-somethings of the 2010s. Other favorite words in both decades were 'safety' and synonyms like 'security' and 'protection.' New Deal programs advertised all three, as have the costliest government initiatives in recent years. During the 2010s, firms began offering 'feeling safe' as a benefit to their customers. 'Stay safe' became a common farewell greeting. Political parties worldwide issued ever more slogans promising economic security and ever fewer promising economic growth [...] And in both decades, an ancient truth revealed itself: When people start taking on less risk as individuals, they start taking on more risk as groups." (p. 22).
Is the seeking safety in numbers a result of individual cowardice? Is the world more dangerous, as in the oft-memed "Don't go Solo, take a Wookie" mantra? Is the Millennial mentality of group-think to blame?
Not exactly.
NAVIGATION
Years ago, I was particuarly struck by a scene in the film The Hurt Locker, where the protagonist played by Jeremy Renner stares down a long, long aisle of cereal boxes in a grocery store. The amount of choices is ridiculous, overwhelming, and disorienting. For Renner's character, an Army bomb tech recently returned home from a daily life of constant peril, trying to pick out a box of cereal feels stupid and cruel. Why are there so many? What does it even matter?
And yet, even that endless cereal aisle has a generational origin, from the Silent Generation's push against conformity to the Baby Boomer's embrace of conspicuous capitalism to the Generation X love of profit. Today's Americans have a veritable smorgasbord of options in every area of life, but the promise of freedom is an empty one. Instead, we have decision fatigue and analysis paralysis, because we spend so much time attempting to find the tiny nuance of difference between every little thing instead of saving those mental reserves for big decisions.
You need look no further than the modern dating scene for examples. Researchers such as Mark Regnerus, author of Cheap Sex: The Transformation of Men, Marriage, and Monogamy have described how the proliferation of dating apps, online pornography, and easy contraception have made sexual experiences widely available for all, but have resulted in fewer marriages or satisfying long-term relationships. While the long-term benefits of marriage on health, wealth, and happiness are statistically proven, they are often overlooked because getting there usually means ignoring the "cereal aisle" of options along the way. That's a hard thing to do when you're living in an epidemic of loneliness and indulgence.
It's even harder when you don't have a counter-cultural example to follow. As I write in my novel The Ratliffe House, "Nowadays nobody knew what the other person was after. A hookup, a friendship, a relationship? You could never tell. And marriage? Most of my friends were terrified of it. They wanted to be married someday, but they didn't want to see themselves end up like their parents-- divorced or ball-and-chain." While authors like Helen Andrews can skillfully detail the shortcoming of current twenty-somethings' parents for anyone who wants to be depressed, my point is this: It's a really difficult thing to create a wheel if you've never seen one because doing so involves imagination, perseverance, and skill. A successful marriage is no different.
And if you don't have an example in-person, what's the next best thing? If you're inclined to say "YouTube," you're not completely wrong. A virtual example, a set of parameters, or even a guiding text is necessary to navigate life. Humans have long sought stars and lodestones, maps and landmarks to help them find their way through the woods. But again, the postmodern mindset has snatched our moral compasses and smashed them on the ground. Can we prove that being "liberated" of religion really equals freedom?
William J. Bennett's Book of Virtues includes a touching bit of memoir from baseball star Babe Ruth, who explains the value of the church in his own troubled life and the lives of the boys who wrote him fan letters:
"So what good was all the hard work and ceaseless interest of the Brothers, people would argue? You can't make kids religious, they say, because it just won't take. Send kids to Sunday School and they too often end up hating it and the church.
Don't you believe it. As far as I'm concerned, and I think as far as most kids go, once religion sinks in, it stays there--deep down. The lads who get religious training, get it where it counts--in the roots. They may fail it, but it never fails them. When the score is against them, or they get a bum pitch, that unfailing Something inside will be there to draw on." (p. 780).
And what if kids don't get religious training or moral education, as is increasingly the case in America today? Look no further than today's pro-Hamas campus protests. As Jacob Howland writes in City Journal, "Bereft of precious civilizational compasses and maps, they have learned to regard fundamental social relationships as zero-sum games of domination and servitude." Moreover, American youth also find themselves susceptible to mental illness in the form of Cluster B personality disorders ("the narcissist, the borderline, the histrionic, and the antisocial"), conditions that make them brittle and incapable of discernment.
The result? Safetyism, a virtue-signalling culture that promises life without risk-- if you're willing to sign your decision-making rights (like owning a home or lighting a candle) over to a dominant power. As Neil Howe says in The Fourth Turning is Here, it's part of any saecular winter, from the 1930s to today: "Around the world, in both decades, authoritarian demagogy became a sweeping tide" (p. 22). Sure, maybe it means watching the upteenth multiverse movie or weak retread of a franchise that's been focus-grouped to death, but at least you won't have to subject yourself to any dangerous new ideas, right?
ORIENTATION
The problem of Safetyism and its ham-fisted solutions is that it ignores the outcome of risk: Reward. The risk/reward principle is inherent to all existence, because life is a struggle and "stasis equals death." Risk and reward are a part of all our mythologies, all our treasured tales, because the prize always belongs to those who dare, who move beyond the status quo. Growth is the goal, and profit is the point.
Unfortunately, "profit" is a dirty word in a safety-first culture. On one hand, you have YouTube star Mr. Beast cleaning up oceans and bringing clean food and water to the needy while raking in millions from viewers. On the other, you have Sam Bankman-Fried claiming that his vulture-capital group was actually altruistic in nature while scamming millions from investors. Who's the villain here? It should be clear, but in a domination/servitude worldview, as Jon Miltimore says in FEE, "The Marxist notion that profits are mere exploitation has been adopted by many, even by people who likely would never consider themselves Marxists."
Sadly, those who promote that culturally Marxist perspective fail to understand that a worldview that eschews profit is one that promotes death, not life. Consider the parables of Jesus:
A farmer casts seed on the ground in planting season. Some of the seed is eaten by birds, choked by weeds, or falters in shallow, rocky soil. Yet the act of sowing is still worthwhile, as some of the seeds yield an exponential harvest. (Matthew 13:1-22)
A hired servant works in a field and discovers buried treasure. He puts the treasure back in the ground, then sells everything he owns to buy the field. Now he is richer than before, because the treasure is worth more than his prior possessions. (Matthew 13:44-46)
A rich man goes on a journey, and gives a portion of his riches to three servants to invest while he is gone. Two invest, receive gains, and are praised. One buries the money out of fear, and showing no gain, is called wicked by his master and cast out of service. (Matthew 25:14-30)
Studio executives and CEOs may be operating out of a fear-based, conservationist mindset, but all it's doing is tanking their profits and turning out stale, lukewarm fare. Meanwhile, audiences are growing hungry for truth and beauty, and will be ready to put their money in the hands of whoever can provide it.
SOLUTION
Here's the good news: Winter is the season when risk comes to your door. It's the perfect time to eliminate faulty ways of thinking, equip yourself for the challenge of survival, and exercise new ideas. While the old falls away, the new prepares for spring, and hope springs eternal. Just think of the favorite stories of Christmas, where the stakes are raised and our primal desires of love, redemption, and victorious survival are celebrated, from Fred Claus to A Christmas Carol. And it all begins with one special baby, born into a season of violence and oppression, surviving to live a sinless life, fulfill all prophecy, and rescue humanity from sin and death.
The Christmas Gambit is the calculated risk we all must take, to give up something to gain even more. I know how hard that can be, especially in a culture of fear. However, one of the great lessons of my life has been learning that faithfulness strengthens the muscle of faith. My Christmas wish is that you find that one truly good thing to try, and lean into it as consistently as you can. If you can, you'll soon find that grinding against the grain of the world has a cumulative effect, much like compounding interest in a bank account. In the lean times, you can draw on the store; in the fat times, you can add even more. But you'll never know such blessings unless you try, and ask yourself, "What if?"
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In the spirit of the season, I've added new tracks to my free holiday playlist on Spotify.
Enjoy, and Happy Holidays!